Given the GCSP’s 30-year horizon, progress will naturally unfold over time, and the external environment in which the partnership operates will continue to evolve. By tracking key indicators over time, the partnership can assess whether trends are moving in the desired direction and evaluate the effectiveness of its implementation efforts.
This monitoring framework supports future decision-makers in assessing progress against the plan’s intent, highlighting areas where outcomes align with the partnership’s aspirations, and identifying where adjustments may be needed.
Given the Spatial Plan’s 30-year horizon, progress will naturally take time, and the external environment in which the partnership operates will continue to evolve. Monitoring key indicators over time is essential to understanding whether trends are moving in the right direction and to evaluating the effectiveness of implementation actions.
The monitoring framework is designed to support future decision-makers by providing a clear view of progress against the plan’s intent. It helps identify where outcomes align with the partnership’s aspirations and where adjustments may be needed if progress deviates from expectations.
To be effective, the framework must reflect both the changing external environment and the specific headline indicators and implementation milestones set out in the Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan. This layered approach ensures a comprehensive understanding of strategic progress and operational delivery.
Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan monitoring and reporting framework
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Environmental Scan
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What's changed for Greater Christchurch? External factors:
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Why? To monitor trends over time about what's changing in our community and to consider external opportunities and threats that could influence future decisions. |
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Strategic monitoring and evaluation
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How are we tracking?
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Why? To form an evidence base to see if the actions the partnership is implementing to give effect to the Spatial Plan are having a positive influence. |
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Implementation
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What have we delivered? |
Why? Tactical implementation plan and project reporting to understand if the annual programme of work is being delivered effectively and on track to meet partnership objectives. |
The inaugural Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan Annual Report 2025 [PDF, 1.6 MB] provides a foundational overview of the monitoring and reporting approach for the Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan.
Using currently available data, it establishes a baseline for future reporting and reflects on developments and changes over the past 12 months that may influence the plan’s strategic directions and opportunities.
Insights from this report will inform the Implementation Plan [PDF, 875 KB], helping to shape the partnership’s future work programme by incorporating lessons learned and identifying areas for refinement.
It is important to note that the Spatial Plan remains in the early stages of implementation for most projects and initiatives. As such, significant progress toward achieving the overarching directions and opportunities outlined in the plan is expected to take several years.
The urban residential development and housing dashboard(external link) has been developed to support the legislative requirements of the Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan, and aligns with the National Policy Statement on Urban Development, which requires councils to monitor housing and business capacity quarterly and report annually.
It provides a comprehensive overview of key indicators for residential development across the Greater Christchurch Partnership area, including:
- Total new housing since 2013
- Proportions of intensification vs. greenfield development
- Dwelling sizes, based on the number of bedrooms
- Changes in feasible housing capacity
- Mortgage and rental affordability
- Demand and supply for public housing
Updated quarterly
The dashboard is refreshed every three months to ensure the data remains current and relevant. This regular update cycle supports ongoing monitoring and reporting requirements under the National Policy Statement on Urban Development.
How to use the dashboard
For the best experience, we recommend accessing the dashboard on a desktop or laptop computer. Some features and visualisations may not display correctly on mobile devices or tablets due to screen size limitations.
To help you navigate and interpret the dashboard effectively, detailed guidance and supporting information are provided in tabs 7 to 11.
Urban residential development and housing dashboard
The Greater Christchurch Partnership (GCP) has completed a targeted update to the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) [PDF, 689 KB]to ensure the future development of an updated Housing and Business Capacity Assessment (HBA) for Greater Christchurch is informed by the most up to date data and market conditions and support Partner decision‑making under the Joint Housing Action Plan (JHAP).
The original HNA was completed in 2021. Since then, population growth, housing market conditions, government policy, and affordability pressures have changed. This update provides a timely refresh of key findings, with a focus on demographic trends, housing stress, and future social and affordable housing needs across the housing continuum.
Why a targeted update was needed
The targeted update was commissioned to meet three key needs:
1. A timely refresh of data
The last HNA was completed in 2021, under a different housing and economic context.
This update:
- Uses the latest Census data and population growth projections from partner councils;
- Aligns with data being used for housing capacity and infrastructure planning; and
- Reflects current housing market and affordability conditions more accurately.
2. Alignment with JHAP outcomes and government funding requirements
The update supports delivery of the JHAP outcomes, particularly:
- Increasing the provision of quality affordable housing in suitable locations; and
- Strengthening advocacy to attract housing supply where the market is not delivering.
It also aligns with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development’s “active purchaser” approach and expectations outlined in the Housing Investment Plan.
3. A right‑sized scope to support immediate decisions
The deliberately focused scope ensured the update could be completed quickly and cost‑effectively, while still providing robust evidence to:
- Inform the Partnership’s aggregated Housing Business Assessment (HBA); and
- Support Partnership considerations on the JHAP Phase 2 actions should progress to Phase 3.
Scope of the targeted update
The targeted HNA update focuses on:
- Current housing stress and demographic trends;
- Gaps in housing typologies; and
- Future social and affordable housing needs across the housing continuum, based on agreed population forecasts.
- A scale of the entire council areas, beyond the urban extents, to provide partners flexibility in the use of the assessment.
The update includes refreshed estimates of:
- Total housing need; and
- Projected housing need over time, with particular attention on social and affordable housing products (including assisted rentals and ownership).
Out of scope were detailed sub‑area modelling, family composition analysis, housing utilisation measures, and presentations to elected members.
High‑Level Findings
Changing housing patterns
After several decades of declining home ownership rates in New Zealand and across Greater Christchurch, the most recent Census shows a slight increase in home ownership, particularly among middle‑income households.
This appears to have been supported by:
- Falling interest rates (relative to recent peaks);
- Slower house price growth; and
- Household incomes increasing faster than average rents for some groups.
Housing stress remains acute for vulnerable households
Despite modest affordability improvements for some households, those with the greatest housing need continue to experience significant stress. Incomes for these households have not kept pace with rental costs, meaning housing pressure remains entrenched for lower‑income renters and those requiring assisted housing.
Growing need across the housing continuum
The update confirms that housing need will continue to grow across Greater Christchurch, particularly:
- Demand for social and affordable housing; and
- The number of renter households experiencing housing stress.
These pressures are expected to increase as population growth continues and household sizes become smaller.
How the targeted Housing Needs Assessment will be used
The targeted HNA update will:
- Inform the Partnership’s future update to its Housing and Business Capacity Assessment;
- Be referenced in Joint Housing Action Plan Phase 2 considerations;
- Support any future advocacy, submissions, and funding applications as these opportunities arise; and
- Provide a shared evidence base for partner councils, central government agencies and housing providers in related work.